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Quantifying the temperature sensitivity of methane (CH₄) production is crucial for predicting how wetland ecosystems will respond to climate warming. Typically, the temperature sensitivity (often quantified as a Q₁₀value) is derived from laboratory incubation studies and then used in biogeochemical models. However, studies report wide variation in incubation-inferred Q₁₀values, with a large portion of this variation remaining unexplained. Here we applied observations in a thawing permafrost peatland (Stordalen Mire) and a well-tested process-rich model (ecosys) to interpret incubation observations and investigate controls on inferred CH₄production temperature sensitivity. We developed a field-storage-incubation modeling approach to mimic the full incubation sequence, including field sampling at a particular time in the growing season, refrigerated storage, and laboratory incubation, followed by model evaluation. We found that CH₄production rates during incubation are regulated by substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups, which are affected by soil storage duration and temperature. Seasonal variation in substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups led to strong time-of-sampling impacts on CH₄production. CH₄production is higher with less perturbation post-sampling, i.e. shorter storage duration and lower storage temperature. We found a wide range of inferred Q₁₀values (1.2–3.5), which we attribute to incubation temperatures, incubation duration, storage duration, and sampling time. We also show that Q₁₀values of CH₄production are controlled by interacting biological, biochemical, and physical processes, which cause the inferred Q₁₀values to differ substantially from those of the component processes. Terrestrial ecosystem models that use a constant Q₁₀value to represent temperature responses may therefore predict biased soil carbon cycling under future climate scenarios.

 

Permafrost thaw increases active layer thickness, changes landscape hydrology and influences vegetation species composition. These changes alter belowground microbial and geochemical processes, affecting production, consumption and net emission rates of climate forcing trace gases. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes determine the radiative forcing contribution from these climate-sensitive ecosystems. Permafrost peatlands may be a mosaic of dry frozen hummocks, semi-thawed or perched sphagnum dominated areas, wet permafrost-free sedge dominated sites and open water ponds. We revisited estimates of climate forcing made for 1970 and 2000 for Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden and found the trend of increasing forcing continued into 2014. The Mire continued to transition from dry permafrost to sedge and open water areas, increasing by 100% and 35%, respectively, over the 45-year period, causing the net radiative forcing of Stordalen Mire to shift from negative to positive. This trend is driven by transitioning vegetation community composition, improved estimates of annual CO 2 and CH 4 exchange and a 22% increase in the IPCC's 100-year global warming potential (GWP_100) value for CH 4 . These results indicate that discontinuous permafrost ecosystems, while still remaining a net overall sink of C, can become a positive feedback to climate change on decadal timescales. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 2)’. 

Abstract. Methane (CH4) emissions from the boreal and arcticregion are globally significant and highly sensitive to climate change.There is currently a wide range in estimates of high-latitude annualCH4 fluxes, where estimates based on land cover inventories andempirical CH4 flux data or process models (bottom-up approaches)generally are greater than atmospheric inversions (top-down approaches). Alimitation of bottom-up approaches has been the lack of harmonizationbetween inventories of site-level CH4 flux data and the land coverclasses present in high-latitude spatial datasets. Here we present acomprehensive dataset of small-scale, surface CH4 flux data from 540terrestrial sites (wetland and non-wetland) and 1247 aquatic sites (lakesand ponds), compiled from 189 studies. The Boreal–Arctic Wetland and LakeMethane Dataset (BAWLD-CH4) was constructed in parallel with acompatible land cover dataset, sharing the same land cover classes to enablerefined bottom-up assessments. BAWLD-CH4 includes information onsite-level CH4 fluxes but also on study design (measurement method,timing, and frequency) and site characteristics (vegetation, climate,hydrology, soil, and sediment types, permafrost conditions, lake size anddepth, and our determination of land cover class). The different land coverclasses had distinct CH4 fluxes, resulting from definitions that wereeither based on or co-varied with key environmental controls. Fluxes ofCH4 from terrestrial ecosystems were primarily influenced by watertable position, soil temperature, and vegetation composition, while CH4fluxes from aquatic ecosystems were primarily influenced by watertemperature, lake size, and lake genesis. Models could explain more of thebetween-site variability in CH4 fluxes for terrestrial than aquaticecosystems, likely due to both less precise assessments of lake CH4fluxes and fewer consistently reported lake site characteristics. Analysisof BAWLD-CH4 identified both land cover classes and regions within theboreal and arctic domain, where future studies should be focused, alongsidemethodological approaches. Overall, BAWLD-CH4 provides a comprehensivedataset of CH4 emissions from high-latitude ecosystems that are usefulfor identifying research opportunities, for comparison against new fielddata, and model parameterization or validation. BAWLD-CH4 can bedownloaded from https://doi.org/10.18739/A2DN3ZX1R (Kuhn et al., 2021). 

Northern post-glacial lakes are significant, increasing sources of atmospheric carbon through ebullition (bubbling) of microbially-produced methane (CH₄) from sediments. Ebullitive CH₄flux correlates strongly with temperature, reflecting that solar radiation drives emissions. However, here we show that the slope of the temperature-CH₄flux relationship differs spatially across two post-glacial lakes in Sweden. We compared these CH₄emission patterns with sediment microbial (metagenomic and amplicon), isotopic, and geochemical data. The temperature-associated increase in CH₄emissions was greater in lake middles—where methanogens were more abundant—than edges, and sediment communities were distinct between edges and middles. Microbial abundances, including those of CH₄-cycling microorganisms and syntrophs, were predictive of porewater CH₄concentrations. Results suggest that deeper lake regions, which currently emit less CH₄than shallower edges, could add substantially to CH₄emissions in a warmer Arctic and that CH₄emission predictions may be improved by accounting for spatial variations in sediment microbiota.

 

Abstract. Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers areexpected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw.However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scalingfield-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to alarge uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methaneemissions. Here we present the Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset(BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolatedusing random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate,topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surfacewater extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage offive wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 × 0.5∘ grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes(17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined usingcriteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicatedby a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. InBAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 × 106 km2 (14 % of domain)with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 × 106 km2. Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetlandclasses, covering ∼ 28 % each of the total wetland area,while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-waterecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 × 106 km2(6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (>10 km2) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lakearea, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %,respectively. Small (<0.1 km2) glacial, peatland, and yedomalakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributeddisproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 × 106 km2. Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12  × 106 km2 (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated withhigh-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes.Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classeswere identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of“wetscapes” that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes andsensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide adataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extentsand which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such,BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modellingand upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, inparticular those aimed at improving assessments of current and futuremethane emissions. Data are freely available athttps://doi.org/10.18739/A2C824F9X (Olefeldt et al., 2021). 

Stable isotopes have emerged as popular study targets when investigating emission of methane (CH₄) from lakes. Yet little is known on how isotopic patterns conform to variations in emission magnitudes—a highly relevant question. Here, we present a large multiyear data set on stable isotopes of CH₄ebullition (bubbling) from three small adjacent subarctic lakes. The δ¹³C‐CH₄and δD‐CH₄range from −78.4‰ to −53.1‰ and from −369.8‰ to −218.8‰, respectively, and vary greatly among the lakes. The signatures suggest dominant hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, particularly in the deep zones, but there are also signals of seemingly acetoclastic production in some high fluxing shallow areas, possibly fueled by in situ vegetation, but in‐sediment anaerobic CH₄oxidation cannot be ruled out as an alternative cause. The observed patterns, however, are not consistent across the lakes. Neither do they correspond to the spatiotemporal variations in the measured bubble CH₄fluxes. Patterns of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic production plus oxidation demonstrate that gains and losses of sediment CH₄are dominated by sub‐lake scale processes. The δD‐CH₄in the bubbles was significantly different depending on measurement month, likely due to evaporation effects. On a larger scale, our isotopic data, combined with those from other lakes, show a significant difference in bubble δD‐CH₄between postglacial and thermokarst lakes, an important result for emission inventories. Although this characteristic theoretically assists in source partitioning studies, most hypothetical future shifts in δD‐CH₄due to high‐latitude lake area or production pathway are too small to lead to atmospheric changes detectable with current technology.

 

Abstract. In the current era of rapid climate change, accuratecharacterization of climate-relevant gas dynamics – namely production,consumption, and net emissions – is required for all biomes, especially thoseecosystems most susceptible to the impact of change. Marine environmentsinclude regions that act as net sources or sinks for numerous climate-activetrace gases including methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Thetemporal and spatial distributions of CH4 and N2O are controlledby the interaction of complex biogeochemical and physical processes. Toevaluate and quantify how these mechanisms affect marine CH4 andN2O cycling requires a combination of traditional scientificdisciplines including oceanography, microbiology, and numerical modeling.Fundamental to these efforts is ensuring that the datasets produced byindependent scientists are comparable and interoperable. Equally critical istransparent communication within the research community about the technicalimprovements required to increase our collective understanding of marineCH4 and N2O. A workshop sponsored by Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB)was organized to enhance dialogue and collaborations pertaining tomarine CH4 and N2O. Here, we summarize the outcomes from theworkshop to describe the challenges and opportunities for near-futureCH4 and N2O research in the marine environment. 

Permafrost thaw is a major potential feedback source to climate change as it can drive the increased release of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄). This carbon release from the decomposition of thawing soil organic material can be mitigated by increased net primary productivity (NPP) caused by warming, increasing atmospheric CO₂, and plant community transition. However, the net effect on C storage also depends on how these plant community changes alter plant litter quantity, quality, and decomposition rates. Predicting decomposition rates based on litter quality remains challenging, but a promising new way forward is to incorporate measures of the energetic favorability to soil microbes of plant biomass decomposition. We asked how the variation in one such measure, the nominal oxidation state of carbon (NOSC), interacts with changing quantities of plant material inputs to influence the net C balance of a thawing permafrost peatland. We found: (1) Plant productivity (NPP) increased post‐thaw, but instead of contributing to increased standing biomass, it increased plant biomass turnover via increased litter inputs to soil; (2) Plant litter thermodynamic favorability (NOSC) and decomposition rate both increased post‐thaw, despite limited changes in bulk C:N ratios; (3) these increases caused the higher NPP to cycle more rapidly through both plants and soil, contributing to higher CO₂and CH₄ fluxes from decomposition. Thus, the increased C‐storage expected from higher productivity was limited and the high global warming potential of CH₄contributed a net positive warming effect. Although post‐thaw peatlands are currently C sinks due to high NPP offsetting high CO₂release, this status is very sensitive to the plant community's litter input rate and quality. Integration of novel bioavailability metrics based on litter chemistry, including NOSC, into studies of ecosystem dynamics, is needed to improve the understanding of controls on arctic C stocks under continued ecosystem transition.